Germany has apparently assented to providing Taurus cruise missiles to strike Russia.
If Russia is targeted by Taurus missiles, I believe these facts obtain:
🔹 They must be programmed by German technicians and launched by “volunteer” NATO pilots flying NATO jets — the entire process dependent on US-supplied ISR.
🔹 It is claimed by many that the F-16 can carry a Taurus, but it has never yet been done, and would require extensive modification to airframe, avionics, and programming. It is doubtful that the 1980s-era airframes sent to Ukraine are worthy candidates for such an upgrade.
🔹 The longer the Taurus must fly inside its purported 500 km operational range, the more likely it will be shot down, so they must close that distance and decrease flight time.
🔹 Although the Taurus can cruise <100 m altitude, it must be launched from high altitude in order to achieve its advertised range. This will expose the attacking aircraft to detection and destruction.
🔹 In my estimation, the Kerch Bridge is the most likely target for a Taurus missile attack. Militarily, its significance is minimal. But all the US/NATO/Ukraine have left to cheer for are symbolic victories, however transitory.
🔹 To bring down the Kerch Bridge, it would take several 500 kg warhead Taurus strikes. I’d guess at least three dozen missiles must be launched in order to achieve ~10 accurate hits. And I don’t see any way a salvo of three dozen is even remotely possible.
🔹 If Taurus missiles strike anything meaningful in Russia, there will be hell to pay for it. Anyone who believes Putin will “take it lying down” at this stage of the game is, I am convinced, woefully mistaken.
🔹 It is not yet clear what the range of the hypersonic Oreshnik missile is, and how accurate it truly is. But Berlin is well within range of Kinzhals and Iskanders, and has no credible defense against them.